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The federal government's house price index for the Austin metro area read 506.31 in the second quarter of 2026. Ten quarters earlier, at the end of 2023, it read 500.94. All eleven readings in that stretch have landed from 499.07 to 509.86, a band 2.2 percent wide. The index peaked at 570.86 in the second quarter of 2022, and the latest value is 11.3 percent below that.
The next reading, for July through September, is on the Federal Housing Finance Agency's release calendar for Tuesday, November 24. Before it arrives, here is what the index has done, what it measures, and what it leaves out.
The flat stretch, quarter by quarter
These are the values for the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metropolitan area in FHFA's all-transactions index. The index is set to 100 for the first quarter of 1995 and is not seasonally adjusted. It is an index, so 506.31 is not a price. It says a typical house in the sample is worth about five times what it was in early 1995.
| Quarter | Index | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 Q1 | 351.66 | Before the run-up |
| 2021 Q4 | 500.70 | |
| 2022 Q2 | 570.86 | Peak |
| 2023 Q4 | 500.94 | Flat stretch begins |
| 2024 Q1 | 509.86 | High of the stretch |
| 2024 Q4 | 499.07 | Low of the stretch |
| 2025 Q2 | 504.61 | |
| 2026 Q1 | 501.68 | |
| 2026 Q2 | 506.31 | Latest |
Read across those rows and the shape is plain. From early 2020 to mid-2022 the index rose 62 percent. It then fell for six straight quarters. Since the end of 2023 it has gone sideways. The latest value is 0.3 percent above the same quarter a year earlier, 1.1 percent above the end of 2021, and 44 percent above the first quarter of 2020. Percentages are our arithmetic on FHFA's published values.
Seven of the ten quarter-to-quarter moves inside the flat stretch were smaller than five index points. FHFA's file lists a standard error of 3.71 points beside the latest value, so a move of that size is close to the precision of the estimate. One quarter up or down has not meant much here for almost three years.
What the index measures, and what it leaves out
FHFA's frequently asked questions describe the method. The index "measures average price changes for sales or refinancings of the same properties over time." It follows the same houses from one transaction to the next, which is why it is called a repeat-sales index, and why a quarter with more large houses selling does not push it up the way it can push up a median price.
The data comes from single-family mortgages that Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac bought or guaranteed. The all-transactions version used here adds appraisal values from refinance loans to the sale prices. That matters for reading it:
- Cash purchases are not in it. No mortgage, no record.
- Loans above the conforming limit are not in it. Neither are FHA and VA loans, which are not conventional mortgages. Our review of Travis County mortgage filings found 19.7 percent of 2025 purchase loans were FHA or VA and 11.2 percent were jumbo.
- Condominiums are not in it. FHFA's FAQ says the sample also excludes cooperatives, multi-unit properties and planned unit developments.
- Refinance appraisals are in it. An appraisal is an opinion of value, not a sale.
- Old values change. FHFA says it "revises historical FHFA HPI estimates as additional transaction data become available," so the November 24 release may adjust earlier quarters as well as add a new one.
It is also a figure for five counties together. It is not a reading for any ZIP code, street or house.
The five counties did not move together
FHFA also publishes an annual index for each county, which it labels developmental. The latest year is 2025. Each county's index has its own starting year, so the values cannot be compared across counties. The changes can.
| County | 2022 to 2025 | 2019 to 2025 | 2025 alone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travis | -10.0% | +38.7% | -1.7% |
| Williamson | -8.0% | +51.2% | -1.0% |
| Hays | -5.1% | +51.9% | -0.1% |
| Bastrop | +2.5% | +58.5% | +1.6% |
| Caldwell | +2.4% | +57.1% | -2.4% |
Travis County's annual index fell in each of the last three years: 6.7 percent in 2023, 1.8 percent in 2024 and 1.7 percent in 2025. Williamson followed the same pattern with smaller numbers. Bastrop's only down year since 2019 was 2023, at 0.2 percent. Caldwell's kept rising through 2024 and gave back 2.4 percent in 2025. The two-column comparison is our arithmetic; the single-year changes are FHFA's.
What the index has done since the quarter you bought
A flat index lands very differently depending on when an owner bought. The table takes the metro index in the purchase quarter and compares it with the latest value. The last column scales a round $400,000 by the same ratio. That is arithmetic to make the percentages concrete. It is not an estimate of what any home is worth, and no single house tracks a metro average.
| Bought in | Index then | Change to 2026 Q2 | $400,000 scaled by the index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 Q4 | 345.70 | +46.5% | $585,800 |
| 2020 Q4 | 377.11 | +34.3% | $537,000 |
| 2021 Q2 | 439.33 | +15.2% | $461,000 |
| 2021 Q4 | 500.70 | +1.1% | $404,500 |
| 2022 Q2 | 570.86 | -11.3% | $354,800 |
| 2023 Q2 | 519.14 | -2.5% | $390,100 |
| 2024 Q2 | 506.98 | -0.1% | $399,500 |
| 2025 Q2 | 504.61 | +0.3% | $401,300 |
The index does not account for the costs of selling, the loan balance, or anything an owner spent on the house. It shows only the direction and size of the metro-wide price change.
Prices went flat while borrowing got dearer
The other half of a monthly payment has not been flat. Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.18 percent for the week of November 5, down from 7.24 percent the week before and up from 6.22 percent a year earlier. So a buyer today faces roughly the price level of late 2021 at a higher rate than a year ago. We worked through the payment math in our October piece on mortgage rates.
What this means if you're buying, selling or owning here
Buying. A flat metro index says nothing about one house. It does suggest that a recent comparable sale is less likely to be stale than it would have been in 2021 or 2022, when the index moved 10 percent in a single quarter. Ask how old each comparable is and whether it was a sale or a list price.
Selling. The quarter you bought sets your starting point more than this year does. Owners who bought through 2021 Q2 are measured against a much lower index. Owners who bought in the first half of 2022 are measured against the peak. A price built on what a neighbor got in 2022 is built on an index 11.3 percent higher than today's. Our home value page is the place to start a conversation about one specific house.
Owning. Appraisal districts value property as of January 1 each year. The Texas Comptroller's guide to valuing property says districts must appraise at market value on that date, and that the appraised value of a qualified homestead "may not increase more than 10 percent per year." When market values are flat, that limit has less to hold back than it did in 2022. Whether it applies to your account is on your appraisal notice. The property tax analyzer pulls the public record for an address. For tax or lending questions about your own situation, ask the appraisal district or a licensed professional.
What to watch on November 24
Three things. First, whether the third-quarter value stays between 499 and 510. Second, whether FHFA revises the second-quarter 506.31, since late-arriving loan data changes recent quarters. Third, FHFA's purchase-only indexes, which the agency treats as its standard measure in quarterly releases. They use sales alone, with no refinance appraisals, and can differ from the all-transactions version used here.
If you are weighing a purchase or a sale before then and want the records on one address instead of a five-county average, run it through our research tool or talk with a local agent on our team.